Below is the result for the Mayoralty to 7.pm on 07.02.2012.
What it shows is that Ian Thomas leads the primary polling. Val Schier sits on a base ALP support of 27%. The two conservative candidates have 22% of the primary vote.
As anticipated, due to the lacklustre calibre of Mayoral candidates there is no one candidate with an unassailable lead. The result will will come down to the distribution of 2nd preferences. On these figure if Val Schier is to win the Mayoralty, she will have to do a preference deal with either of the candidates.
The animosity that exists between Community Alliance and Unity, stemming from the personal ego driven fallout between ex Mayor Kevin Byrne and current deputy Mayor Margaret Cochrane could well be exploited by Val Schier and or his campaign coordinator with the ultimate aim of securing either or of the conservative parties second preference.
This is where ALP Unity member Richie Bates could well play a vital part in building a bridge between Manning and Schier. Bates has the opportunity to be the 'king maker'.
My gut feeling is that Australian voters do not take well to spoilers. Margaret Cochrane is seen as a spoiler and as such could well crash and burn.
Cochrane. Margaret - Community Alliance 18 (22%)
Manning. Bob - Unity 18 (22%)
Schier. Val - Independent 22 (27%)
Thomas. Ian - Independent 23 (28%)
__________________ | ________________
What it shows is that Ian Thomas leads the primary polling. Val Schier sits on a base ALP support of 27%. The two conservative candidates have 22% of the primary vote.
As anticipated, due to the lacklustre calibre of Mayoral candidates there is no one candidate with an unassailable lead. The result will will come down to the distribution of 2nd preferences. On these figure if Val Schier is to win the Mayoralty, she will have to do a preference deal with either of the candidates.
The animosity that exists between Community Alliance and Unity, stemming from the personal ego driven fallout between ex Mayor Kevin Byrne and current deputy Mayor Margaret Cochrane could well be exploited by Val Schier and or his campaign coordinator with the ultimate aim of securing either or of the conservative parties second preference.
This is where ALP Unity member Richie Bates could well play a vital part in building a bridge between Manning and Schier. Bates has the opportunity to be the 'king maker'.
My gut feeling is that Australian voters do not take well to spoilers. Margaret Cochrane is seen as a spoiler and as such could well crash and burn.
Cochrane. Margaret - Community Alliance 18 (22%)
Manning. Bob - Unity 18 (22%)
Schier. Val - Independent 22 (27%)
Thomas. Ian - Independent 23 (28%)
__________________ | ________________
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.